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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

1-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Thu, Sep 24 • 8:15 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

1-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Jake Bailey None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
24%
📊
PACKERS
76%
▲ Edge: +5.30% (GB)
FALCONS 34% Book Odds: +195
PACKERS 70% Book Odds: -238
Book Implied: 33.90% / 70.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.4
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 42.5 50%
Under 42.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Green Bay)
FalconsATL (+4.5) 0 PackersGB (-4.5)
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

23.8%

Packers Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

ATL By 1-6 points

10.7%

ATL By 7-13 points

7.3%

GB By 1-6 points

15.3%

GB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 19
26.2
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
19
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 19
27
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Packers Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Packers (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.4
A
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 ATL @ GB 35 - 14
Sep 17, 2023 GB @ ATL 24 - 25
Oct 5, 2020 ATL @ GB 16 - 30
Dec 9, 2018 ATL @ GB 20 - 34
Sep 17, 2017 GB @ ATL 23 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.5% more
Green Bay: 215.9 vs Atlanta: 177.7
Turnovers (L5) +58.6% more
Atlanta: 3.0 vs Green Bay: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Atlanta: 121.3 vs Green Bay: 90.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 16.2 35
GB Score 26.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 17.8 18.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 215.9 / 177.7 311.0 / 256.0
Rushing Yards 90.6 / 121.3 17.0 / 242.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 306.5 / 299.0 328.0 / 498.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.8 5.2 / 7.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +295 / -375 → +195 / -238 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
GB
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -13.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
GB
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -13.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.8
GB
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
ATL
GB
ATL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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