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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

71-82  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

58-94  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
@
Yusei Kikuchi
STARTING PITCHER

Yusei Kikuchi

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Kirby 9-11 4.25 1.36 165.1 138
Yusei Kikuchi 1-5 4.75 1.49 53.0 54
9-11 W-L 1-5
4.25 Ldr ERA 4.75
1.36 Ldr WHIP 1.49
165.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 53.0
138 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 54
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
50%
📊
ANGELS
50%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (LAA)
MARINERS 57% Book Odds: -131
ANGELS 48% Book Odds: +109
Book Implied: 56.70% / 47.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAA @ SEA 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 LAA @ SEA 4 - 8
Sep 25, 2026 LAA @ SEA 7 - 5
Sep 24, 2026 LAA @ SEA 6 - 4
Sep 16, 2026 SEA @ LAA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.693 ▲
OPS
.679
182 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +28.3% more
Seattle: 1.4 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Hits (L5) +28.2% more
Seattle: 9.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +26.8% more
Seattle: 16.2 vs Los Angeles: 11.8
Home Runs (Season) +15.4% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.2 7
LAA Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.7 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.3 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 16.2 10.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.8 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -174 / +144 → -131 / +109 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
88%TICKETS12%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SEA
LAA
SEA
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-81
55% 89-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 98-64
51% 82-80
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
56% 85-67-10
52% 82-75-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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