ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
89-64 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
85-68 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
JR Ritchie
#60 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Ritchie | 1-2 | 4.50 | 1.43 | 58.0 | 53 |
| Shota Imanaga | 10-10 | 3.88 | 1.12 | 162.1 | 156 |
1-2
W-L
10-10
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.88
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
58.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 162.1
53
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 156
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
27%
CUBS
73%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (CHC)
BRAVES
42%
Book Odds: +137
CUBS
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
ATL @ CHC
4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026
ATL @ CHC
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
ATL @ CHC
3 - 7
May 14, 2026
CHC @ ATL
2 - 0
May 13, 2026
CHC @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.757
▲
OPS
.374
1
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+66.5% more
Chicago: 8.0
vs
Atlanta: 4.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+59.1% more
Atlanta: 1.8
vs
Chicago: 0.7
OPS (Season)
+38.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.2
4
CHC Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 9.3
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.8
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 4.8
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 15.6
28.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+137 / -167
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ATL
CHC
ATL
ML
58%
93-68
46%
77-90
51%
82-79
54%
90-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
96-71
47%
75-85-1
52%
87-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-6
49%
76-80-11
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