PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
84-68 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
71-82 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Simpson
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 12-5 | 3.14 | 1.07 | 143.1 | 172 |
| Jared Simpson | 1-0 | 6.75 | 0.75 | 4.0 | 4 |
12-5
W-L
1-0
3.14 Ldr
ERA
6.75
1.07
WHIP
Ldr 0.75
143.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
172 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
53%
NATIONALS
47%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (WSH)
PHILLIES
67%
Book Odds: -199
NATIONALS
38%
Book Odds: +163
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 9.0
56%
Under 9.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+14.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
Washington: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+10.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.6
vs
Washington: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.5
3
WSH Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.3
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.1
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 13.8
5.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.2
2.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -217 / +177
→
-199 / +163
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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