MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
95-57 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
75-77 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | 10-3 | 2.34 | 0.78 | 88.1 | 99 |
| Jared Jones | 4-6 | 4.10 | 1.17 | 85.2 | 100 |
10-3
W-L
4-6
2.34 Ldr
ERA
4.10
0.78 Ldr
WHIP
1.17
88.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
85.2
99
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
56%
PIRATES
44%
BREWERS
57%
Book Odds: -135
PIRATES
47%
Book Odds: +112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
69%
Under 7.5
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers
Win
56% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.743
▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+51.9% more
Milwaukee: 1.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+30.7% more
Milwaukee: 17.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.9
Walks (L5)
+26.9% more
Milwaukee: 4.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+14.4% more
Milwaukee: 10.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.5
5
PIT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 10.2
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.1
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 17.2
23.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.7
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -257 / +207
→
-135 / +112
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52%
82-77
62%
101-61
52%
85-78
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
TTL
47%
72-81-6
40%
62-92-8
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-77-8
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