Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Reds LAD @ CIN

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

92-60  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

71-81  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Blake Snell
STARTING PITCHER

Blake Snell

#7 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andrew Abbott
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Abbott

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Blake Snell 4-1 1.91 1.09 37.2 51
Andrew Abbott 6-11 4.78 1.46 154.1 120
4-1 W-L 6-11
1.91 Ldr ERA 4.78
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.46
37.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 154.1
51 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 120
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
58%
📊
REDS
42%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (CIN)
DODGERS 69% Book Odds: -227
REDS 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.40% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 51%
Under 8.0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.80
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.762 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +33.3% more
Los Angeles: 13.4 vs Cincinnati: 9.0
Hits (L5) +17.8% more
Los Angeles: 6.8 vs Cincinnati: 5.6
Runs per Game (Season) +16.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 2
CIN Score 3.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.6 / 6.8 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.4 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 13.4 20.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.7 8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -238 / +193 → -227 / +185 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
92%TICKETS8%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAD
CIN
LAD
ML
55% 88-71
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 80-80
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-5
48% 77-82-6
54% 83-72-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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