Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Twins NYY @ MIN

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

88-64  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

71-81  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carlos Rodon 6-3 2.94 1.12 70.1 78
Zebby Matthews 9-10 4.98 1.27 119.1 99
6-3 W-L 9-10
2.94 Ldr ERA 4.98
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.27
70.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 119.1
78 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 99
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
57%
📊
TWINS
43%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MIN)
YANKEES 62% Book Odds: -163
TWINS 43% Book Odds: +135
Book Implied: 62% / 42.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 60%
Under 8.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

36.3%

Twins Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
57% Win Prob
B
Sim Twins Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 NYY @ MIN 4 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 NYY @ MIN 8 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 NYY @ MIN 8 - 3
Jul 5, 2026 MIN @ NYY 6 - 1
Jul 4, 2026 MIN @ NYY 11 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Minnesota MIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041 ▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +68.8% more
New York: 2.1 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +49.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Total Bases (L5) +39.4% more
New York: 17.3 vs Minnesota: 10.5
Hits (L5) +34.5% more
New York: 9.8 vs Minnesota: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.2 4
MIN Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 9.8 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 7.8 11.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 17.3 14.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.7 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -180 / +148 → -163 / +135 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
87%TICKETS13%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYY
MIN
NYY
ML
52% 84-78
47% 76-85
50% 80-81
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 95-67
59% 95-66
59% 95-66
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 81-73-7
53% 80-72-9
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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