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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

64-89  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

75-78  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Molina
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Molina

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Molina 3-1 5.24 1.25 22.1 19
Matthew Liberatore 5-14 5.53 1.49 143.1 146
3-1 W-L 5-14
5.24 Ldr ERA 5.53
1.25 Ldr WHIP 1.49
22.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 143.1
19 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 146
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
52%
📊
CARDINALS
48%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (SF)
GIANTS 43% Book Odds: +135
CARDINALS 62% Book Odds: -163
Book Implied: 42.60% / 62%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

64.6%

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706 ▲
OPS
.691
178 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +60.7% more
San Francisco: 1.4 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Walks (L5) +35.8% more
San Francisco: 4.4 vs St. Louis: 2.8
Total Bases (L5) +33.8% more
San Francisco: 15.1 vs St. Louis: 10.0
Hits (L5) +23.8% more
San Francisco: 9.0 vs St. Louis: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.0 6
STL Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.8 / 9.0 5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.2 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 15.1 6.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.4 7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +138 / -168 → +135 / -163 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
45%TICKETS55%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
74%TICKETS26%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
53% 85-75
ATS
56% 89-70
62% 100-60
53% 85-76
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 82-68-10
50% 76-75-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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