CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
77-75 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
78-75 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 9-9 | 4.53 | 1.37 | 145.0 | 118 |
| Parker Messick | 11-9 | 2.51 | 1.03 | 172.1 | 178 |
9-9
W-L
11-9
4.53
ERA
Ldr 2.51
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.03
145.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 172.1
118
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 178
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
31%
GUARDIANS
69%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (CLE)
WHITE SOX
44%
Book Odds: +129
GUARDIANS
61%
Book Odds: -157
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
5.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
White Sox
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+133.0% more
Cleveland: 1.9
vs
Chicago: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+84.7% more
Cleveland: 11.9
vs
Chicago: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+45.8% more
Cleveland: 15.8
vs
Chicago: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.5
3
CLE Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.2
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.9 / 6.5
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 10.9
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.7
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -130
→
+129 / -157
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
49%
80-82
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
96-69-2
43%
69-90-2
51%
84-81-2
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