Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Angels SEA @ LAA

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

70-82  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

58-93  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Gilbert 12-9 3.72 1.05 172.0 187
Ryan Johnson 4-8 5.12 1.36 84.1 63
12-9 W-L 4-8
3.72 Ldr ERA 5.12
1.05 Ldr WHIP 1.36
172.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 84.1
187 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 63
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (LAA)
MARINERS 63% Book Odds: -169
ANGELS 42% Book Odds: +140
Book Implied: 62.80% / 41.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAA @ SEA 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 LAA @ SEA 4 - 8
Sep 25, 2026 LAA @ SEA 7 - 5
Sep 24, 2026 LAA @ SEA 6 - 4
Sep 16, 2026 SEA @ LAA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.693 ▲
OPS
.679
182 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.2% more
Seattle: 2.1 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Walks (L5) +39.1% more
Seattle: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Hits (L5) +37.1% more
Seattle: 11.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +36.3% more
Seattle: 19.3 vs Los Angeles: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.2 1
LAA Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 11.0 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 19.3 11.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -106 → -169 / +140 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
82%TICKETS18%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SEA
LAA
SEA
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-81
55% 89-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 98-64
51% 82-80
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
56% 85-67-10
52% 82-75-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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