BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
82-69 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
75-76 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 1-5 | 4.58 | 1.76 | 55.0 | 57 |
| Jacob deGrom | 10-9 | 3.80 | 1.08 | 149.1 | 186 |
1-5
W-L
10-9
4.58
ERA
Ldr 3.80
1.76
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
55.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.1
57
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 186
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
RANGERS
56%
RED SOX
46%
Book Odds: +118
RANGERS
59%
Book Odds: -143
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.713
2
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+315.0% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+30.4%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Texas: 1.1
vs
Boston: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.8
2
TEX Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.1
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.3
10.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 12.5
8.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
+118 / -143
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BOS
TEX
BOS
ML
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
78-70-14
46%
72-83-5
55%
81-66-14
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
Texas Rangers Face $38.3M Arbitration Decisions on 10 Players