Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Cardinals SF @ STL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

63-89  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

75-77  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Blade Tidwell
STARTING PITCHER

Blade Tidwell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Blade Tidwell 0-2 4.82 1.29 46.2 38
Andre Pallante 12-6 3.45 1.23 146.0 102
0-2 W-L 12-6
4.82 ERA Ldr 3.45
1.29 WHIP Ldr 1.23
46.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 146.0
38 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 102
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
44%
📊
CARDINALS
56%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (SF)
GIANTS 40% Book Odds: +148
CARDINALS 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 40.30% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 55%
Under 8.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

64.6%

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.0%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.2%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.706 ▲
OPS
.691
178 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +44.6% more
St. Louis: 9.8 vs San Francisco: 6.8
Runs per Game (Season) +7.5% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs San Francisco: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.7%
St. Louis: 31.3% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Home Runs (L5) +70.9% more
San Francisco: 1.1 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.5 10
STL Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.4 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.8 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 11.7 9.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → +148 / -180 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
19%TICKETS81%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SF
STL
SF
ML
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
53% 85-75
ATS
56% 89-70
62% 100-60
53% 85-76
52% 83-77
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 82-68-10
50% 76-75-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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