NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
88-63 | Road
8
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
70-81 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 4-4 | 2.73 | 0.99 | 99.0 | 94 |
| Bailey Ober | 7-5 | 4.28 | 1.25 | 117.2 | 85 |
4-4
W-L
7-5
2.73 Ldr
ERA
4.28
0.99 Ldr
WHIP
1.25
99.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 117.2
94 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
85
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
59%
TWINS
41%
YANKEES
63%
Book Odds: -172
TWINS
41%
Book Odds: +142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
69%
Under 7.5
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.5%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
NYY @ MIN
4 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
MIN @ NYY
6 - 1
Jul 4, 2026
MIN @ NYY
11 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041
▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+75.6% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+53.6% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Minnesota: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+49.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+32.1%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.5
8
MIN Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.7
7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 2.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.6
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 14.9
10.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.5
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +177
→
-172 / +142
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYY
MIN
NYY
ML
52%
84-78
47%
76-85
50%
80-81
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
59%
95-66
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-73-7
53%
80-72-9
53%
82-72-7
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