ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
89-63 | Road
6
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
84-68 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Gausman
#12 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 8-9 | 3.08 | 1.25 | 131.2 | 98 |
| Kevin Gausman | 9-12 | 4.60 | 1.29 | 166.1 | 171 |
8-9
W-L
9-12
3.08 Ldr
ERA
4.60
1.25 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
131.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 166.1
98
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 171
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
39%
CUBS
61%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (CHC)
BRAVES
45%
Book Odds: +123
CUBS
60%
Book Odds: -149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Loss
61% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
ATL @ CHC
4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026
ATL @ CHC
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
ATL @ CHC
3 - 7
May 14, 2026
CHC @ ATL
2 - 0
May 13, 2026
CHC @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.757
▲
OPS
.374
1
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+43.8% more
Chicago: 7.5
vs
Atlanta: 5.2
Walks (L5)
+27.6% more
Chicago: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
6
CHC Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.5
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 5.2
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 13.9
5.0 / 19.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+123 / -149
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ATL
CHC
ATL
ML
58%
93-68
46%
77-90
51%
82-79
54%
90-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
96-71
47%
75-85-1
52%
87-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-6
49%
76-80-11
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