PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
83-68 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
71-81 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Kent
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 17-5 | 2.79 | 1.21 | 187.1 | 210 |
| Jackson Kent | 1-4 | 6.59 | 1.83 | 27.1 | 23 |
17-5
W-L
1-4
2.79 Ldr
ERA
6.59
1.21 Ldr
WHIP
1.83
187.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
27.1
210 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
23
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
59%
NATIONALS
41%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (WSH)
PHILLIES
69%
Book Odds: -218
NATIONALS
36%
Book Odds: +178
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
64%
Under 8.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+69.5% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Washington: 0.3
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Washington: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+12.7% more
Philadelphia: 15.7
vs
Washington: 13.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.5
3
WSH Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 10.0
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 8.1
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 15.7
18.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -189 / +155
→
-218 / +178
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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