ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
61-90 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
91-59 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Perkins | 3-11 | 6.53 | 1.53 | 103.1 | 119 |
| Griffin Jax | 7-10 | 3.99 | 1.24 | 99.1 | 103 |
3-11
W-L
7-10
6.53
ERA
Ldr 3.99
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
103.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
99.1
119 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
103
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
32%
RAYS
68%
ATHLETICS
35%
Book Odds: +189
RAYS
70%
Book Odds: -233
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ATH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
5.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲
.728
194
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+22.3% more
Tampa Bay: 17.7
vs
Athletics: 14.5
Hits (L5)
+21.8% more
Tampa Bay: 9.6
vs
Athletics: 7.9
Home Runs (L5)
+20.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Athletics: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.5
1
TB Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.9
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.0
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 14.5
10.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.6
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +188 / -231
→
+189 / -233
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATH
TB
ATH
ML
58%
95-68
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
52%
84-78
55%
90-73
50%
81-80
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-10
42%
66-90-5
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