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REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

5-0-2  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Santiago Bernabéu

RAYORAYO

2-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
REAL MADRID
78%
DRAW
13%
RAYO
9%
▲ Edge: +17.90% (Rayo Vallecano)
87% Book Odds: -650
DRAW 11% Book Odds: +800
5% Book Odds: +1850
Book Implied: 86.70% / 11.10% / 5.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
3.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 3.75 56%
Under 3.75 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+2.0
RAYO
Book Goal Line
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Rayo)
Real MadridReal Madrid (-2.5) 0 RayoRayo (+2.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.9% / 44.1%

Shots (On Goal)

24(11) / 18(7)

Corners

11 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

90.9%

Cover

9.1%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Rayo Vallecano +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Rayo Vallecano)

Real Madrid By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

63.1%

Rayo Vallecano By 1 goal

3.8%

Rayo Vallecano By 2+ goals

1.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3.10
1
RAYO
Book Implied: 0.60
Simulated Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 3.10
0
RAYO
Book Implied: 0.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Real Madrid Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Real Madrid Win
94% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rayo Vallecano (+2.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +2.0
B
Sim Real Madrid (-2.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o3.75 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim u3.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Real Madrid vs Rayo 4 - 1
Feb 1, 2026 Real Madrid vs Rayo 2 - 1
Nov 9, 2025 Rayo vs Real Madrid 0 - 0
Mar 9, 2025 Real Madrid vs Rayo 2 - 1
Dec 14, 2024 Rayo vs Real Madrid 3 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +300.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Rayo: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +225.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Rayo: 13.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Real Madrid: 1.0 vs Rayo: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +71.4% more
Real Madrid: 12.0 vs Rayo: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Rayo Vallecano Score 1.0 1
Real Madrid Score 3.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 77.5% Draw: 13.1% Away Win: 9.4%
Real Madrid (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Madrid Share: 75.0% Rayo Vallecano Share: 25.0%
AI Projected Score 3.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
ML
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
TTL
67% 4-2-1
33% 2-4-1
67% 4-2-1
33% 2-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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