Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Athletic vs Elche Athletic vs Elche

ATHLETICATHLETIC

2-2-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:30 PM ET
San Mamés

ELCHEELCHE

1-2-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETIC
18%
DRAW
21%
ELCHE
61%
▲ Edge: +31.30% (Elche)
72% Book Odds: -253
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +408
12% Book Odds: +719
Book Implied: 71.70% / 19.70% / 12.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 49%
Under 3.0 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+1.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 goals (Elche)
AthleticAthletic (-1.2) 0 ElcheElche (+1.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

66.6% / 33.4%

Shots (On Goal)

19(3) / 3(1)

Corners

7 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Elche -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Athletic Club By 1 goal

11.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

4.8%

Elche By 1 goal

26.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 2.10
2
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 2.10
0
ELCHE
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Elche Win
43% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletic Club Loss
94% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Elche (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Athletic Club (-1.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Athletic vs Elche 1 - 1
Feb 20, 2026 Athletic vs Elche 2 - 1
Oct 19, 2025 Elche vs Athletic 0 - 0
May 28, 2023 Athletic vs Elche 0 - 1
Sep 11, 2022 Elche vs Athletic 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Elche: 1.0 vs Athletic: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +33.3% more
Elche: 8.0 vs Athletic: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 6.0 vs Elche: 12.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 2.0 vs Elche: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Elche Score 2.0 1
Athletic Club Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Athletic Club (Home) vs Elche (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Athletic Club Share: 33.3% Elche Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Athletic Club
Elche
Athletic Club
Elche
ML
83% 5-1
43% 3-4
17% 1-5
43% 3-4
ATS
67% 4-2
71% 5-2
33% 2-4
57% 4-3
TTL
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
67% 4-2
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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