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OSASUNAOSASUNA

2-2-3  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:15 AM ET
El Sadar

ESPANYOLESPANYOL

2-1-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
OSASUNA
35%
DRAW
31%
ESPANYOL
35%
▲ Edge: +22.10% (Espanyol)
44% Book Odds: +127
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +224
28% Book Odds: +258
Book Implied: 44.10% / 30.90% / 27.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 2.25 42%
Under 2.25 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ESPANYOL
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Espanyol)
OsasunaOsasuna (-0.2) 0 EspanyolEspanyol (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

60.8% / 39.2%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 6(3)

Corners

3 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Espanyol 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Espanyol)

Osasuna By 1 goal

21.1%

Osasuna By 2+ goals

15.9%

Espanyol By 1 goal

21.1%

Espanyol By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
OSASUNA
Book Implied: 1.20
0
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Espanyol Win
37% Win Prob
C
Sim Osasuna Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Espanyol (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Osasuna (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u2.25 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim u2.3
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Osasuna vs Espanyol 0 - 2
Aug 31, 2025 Espanyol vs Osasuna 1 - 0
May 18, 2025 Osasuna vs Espanyol 2 - 0
Dec 14, 2024 Espanyol vs Osasuna 0 - 0
Feb 4, 2023 Espanyol vs Osasuna 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
Espanyol: 7.0 vs Osasuna: 5.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Osasuna: 2.0 vs Espanyol: 1.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Osasuna: 2.0 vs Espanyol: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Espanyol Score 1.0 2
Osasuna Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Osasuna (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Osasuna Share: 50.0% Espanyol Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Osasuna
Espanyol
Osasuna
Espanyol
ML
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
TTL
57% 4-3
50% 3-3-1
69% 4-2
45% 2-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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