Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Racing vs Alavés Racing vs Alavés

RACINGRACING

0-0  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 8:00 AM ET
El Sardineros

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
RACING
35%
DRAW
31%
ALAVÉS
35%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (Alavés)
37% Book Odds: +173
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +245
37% Book Odds: +169
Book Implied: 36.60% / 29% / 37.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 40%
Under 2.75 60%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
RacingRacing (0) 0 AlavésAlavés (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.9% / 43.1%

Shots (On Goal)

11(4) / 16(8)

Corners

4 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/1 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Racing Santander By 1 goal

21.1%

Racing Santander By 2+ goals

15.9%

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
RACING
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
RACING
Book Implied: 1.40
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
46% Win Prob
B
Sim Racing Santander Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Racing Santander (+0) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Racing Santander (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
A
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Racing vs Alavés 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Alavés: 3.0 vs Racing: 1.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Alavés: 0.0 vs Racing: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +125.0% more
Alavés: 4.0 vs Racing: 9.0
Goals Scored (L5) +37.5% more
Alavés: 11.0 vs Racing: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Alavés Score 1.0 1
Racing Santander Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Racing Santander (Home) vs Alavés (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Racing Santander Share: 50.0% Alavés Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Racing Santander
Alavés
Racing Santander
Alavés
ML
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
TTL
43% 3-4
50% 3-3-1
38% 2-4
27% 1-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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