Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Sevilla vs Valencia Sevilla vs Valencia

SEVILLASEVILLA

4-1-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 3:00 PM ET
Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

VALENCIAVALENCIA

1-1-5  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SEVILLA
61%
DRAW
21%
VALENCIA
18%
▲ Edge: +24.30% (Valencia)
55% Book Odds: -124
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +257
20% Book Odds: +409
Book Implied: 55.40% / 28% / 19.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.25
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 2.25 52%
Under 2.25 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
-0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Sevilla)
SevillaSevilla (-0.8) 0 ValenciaValencia (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.6% / 54.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(4) / 3(0)

Corners

6 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Sevilla By 1 goal

26.1%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

36.9%

Valencia By 1 goal

11.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1.50
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1.50
0
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sevilla Win
56% Win Prob
B
Sim Sevilla Win
54% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sevilla (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Sevilla (-0.75)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.3 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 Sevilla vs Valencia 1 - 0
Mar 21, 2026 Sevilla vs Valencia 0 - 2
Dec 7, 2025 Valencia vs Sevilla 1 - 1
Apr 11, 2025 Valencia vs Sevilla 1 - 0
Jan 11, 2025 Sevilla vs Valencia 1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +300.0% more
Sevilla: 8.0 vs Valencia: 2.0
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Sevilla: 2.0 vs Valencia: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Sevilla: 2.0 vs Valencia: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +37.5% more
Sevilla: 8.0 vs Valencia: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Valencia Score 1.0 0
Sevilla Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Sevilla (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Sevilla Share: 66.7% Valencia Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Sevilla
Valencia
Sevilla
Valencia
ML
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
ATS
86% 6-1
83% 5-1
54% 3-3
50% 3-3
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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