Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs América Cruz Azul vs América

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

5-1-4  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 11:15 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

6-2-1  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
61%
DRAW
21%
AMÉRICA
18%
▲ Edge: +10.30% (América)
37% Book Odds: +172
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +273
40% Book Odds: +152
Book Implied: 36.80% / 26.80% / 39.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 51%
Under 2.75 49%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
CRUZ AZUL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Cruz Azul)
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (0) 0 AméricaAmérica (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

43.0% / 57.0%

Shots (On Goal)

16(10) / 28(10)

Corners

6 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

5/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Cruz Azul -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Cruz Azul)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

América By 1 goal

11.1%

América By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.40
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 1.40
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul Win
50% Win Prob
C
Sim Cruz Azul Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Cruz Azul (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Cruz Azul vs América 4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 América vs Cruz Azul 1 - 1
Oct 18, 2025 Cruz Azul vs América 2 - 1
May 18, 2025 América vs Cruz Azul 2 - 1
May 15, 2025 Cruz Azul vs América 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
América: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
América: 3.0 vs Cruz Azul: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
América: 6.0 vs Cruz Azul: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 1.0 3
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 66.7% América Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
América
Cruz Azul
América
ML
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
50% 5-5
78% 7-2
ATS
44% 4-5-1
50% 4-4-1
44% 4-5-1
100% 7-0-2
TTL
44% 4-5-1
56% 5-4
50% 5-5
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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