Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Monterrey vs Tigres Monterrey vs Tigres

MONTERREYMONTERREY

4-1-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:10 PM ET
Estadio BBVA

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
18%
DRAW
21%
TIGRES
61%
▲ Edge: +14.20% (Tigres UANL)
48% Book Odds: +109
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +255
27% Book Odds: +266
Book Implied: 47.80% / 28.20% / 27.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 60%
Under 2.75 40%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 goals (Tigres)
MonterreyMonterrey (-0.5) 0 TigresTigres (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

63.4% / 36.6%

Shots (On Goal)

18(6) / 5(3)

Corners

6 / 0

Cards (Y/R)

3/1 - 3/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Monterrey By 1 goal

11.1%

Monterrey By 2+ goals

4.8%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

26.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.60
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 1.60
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigres UANL Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Monterrey Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigres UANL (+0.5)
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Monterrey (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Monterrey vs Tigres 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Monterrey: 8.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs Monterrey: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 1.0 vs Monterrey: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Monterrey: 5.0 vs Tigres: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 2.0 0
Monterrey Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Monterrey (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Monterrey Share: 33.3% Tigres UANL Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
Tigres UANL
ML
44% 4-5
40% 4-6
44% 4-5
10% 1-9
ATS
53% 4-4
72% 6-2-1
44% 4-5
29% 2-6-1
TTL
44% 4-5
30% 3-7
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.