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TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-2  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:05 PM ET
Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

ATLASATLAS

5-2-3  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATLAS
18%
▲ Edge: +18.10% (Atlas)
72% Book Odds: -261
DRAW 20% Book Odds: +407
12% Book Odds: +745
Book Implied: 72.30% / 19.70% / 11.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 50%
Under 3.0 50%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ATLAS
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlas)
TolucaToluca (-1.5) 0 AtlasAtlas (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

53.8% / 46.2%

Shots (On Goal)

14(6) / 10(2)

Corners

6 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlas +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlas)

Toluca By 1 goal

26.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

36.9%

Atlas By 1 goal

11.1%

Atlas By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.20
1
ATLAS
Book Implied: 0.80
Simulated Score
3
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.20
0
ATLAS
Book Implied: 0.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toluca Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Toluca Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Atlas (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Toluca (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 Toluca vs Atlas 5 - 2
Mar 14, 2026 Toluca vs Atlas 1 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 Atlas vs Toluca 0 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 Atlas vs Toluca 2 - 3
Sep 28, 2024 Toluca vs Atlas 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +500.0% more
Toluca: 1.0 vs Atlas: 6.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 0.0 vs Atlas: 1.0
Wins (L5) +66.7% more
Toluca: 5.0 vs Atlas: 3.0
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Toluca: 12.0 vs Atlas: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlas Score 1.0 2
Toluca Score 2.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Toluca (Home) vs Atlas (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Toluca Share: 66.7% Atlas Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Atlas
Toluca
Atlas
ML
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
ATS
50% 4-4-2
47% 4-5
75% 6-2-2
42% 4-5
TTL
33% 3-6-1
80% 8-2
67% 6-3-1
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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