Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ Fresno St RICE @ FRES

RICE

RICERICE

1-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

3-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
@
Maverick Noonan
KEY GAME

Maverick Noonan

#95 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Charlie Durkin None-None
Maverick Noonan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
29%
📊
FRESNO ST
71%
▲ Edge: +8.40% (RICE)
RICE 21% Book Odds: +380
FRESNO ST 83% Book Odds: -500
Book Implied: 20.80% / 83.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 43.5 60%
Under 43.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.5
RICE
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Rice)
RiceRICE (+12.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (-12.5)
Rice Owls (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

75.1%

Fresno St Cover

24.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RICE +9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

RICE By 1-6 points

11.1%

RICE By 7-13 points

7.6%

FRES By 1-6 points

15.5%

FRES By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19
RICE
Book Implied: 15.50
28.5
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
27
RICE
Book Implied: 15.50
28
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fresno St Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Fresno St Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rice (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.5
C
Sim Rice (+12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.5
B
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 RICE @ FRES 24 - 38
Dec 24, 2014 FRES @ RICE 6 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +17.6% more
Fresno State: 363.6 vs Rice: 309.1
Turnovers (L5) +53.7% more
Rice: 1.3 vs Fresno State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.9% more
Rice: 223.7 vs Fresno State: 161.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 19.0 24
FRES Score 28.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 17.7 23.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 161.3 / 223.7 249.0 / 344.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 363.6 / 309.1 459.0 / 463.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +423 / -614 → +380 / -500 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
FRES Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
FRES Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -4.2
FRES
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
RICE
FRES
RICE
ML
67% 4-2
100% 6-0
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
ATS
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
TTL
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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