Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ UTEP ORST @ UTEP

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

2-2  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-3  |  Home

7
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Brady Braun None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
73%
📊
UTEP
27%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (UTEP)
OREGON ST 82% Book Odds: -440
UTEP 23% Book Odds: +340
Book Implied: 81.50% / 22.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 38%
Under 56.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.6
UTEP
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (UTEP)
Oregon StORST (-11.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+11.5)
UTEP Miners (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

22.4%

UTEP Cover

77.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTEP +10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

ORST By 1-6 points

14.9%

ORST By 7-13 points

19.7%

UTEP By 1-6 points

10.3%

UTEP By 7-13 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30.8
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 34
20.2
UTEP
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
22
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 34
24
UTEP
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon St Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim UTEP Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.6
D
Sim UTEP (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ORST @ UTEP 33 - 7
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Oregon State: 22.5 vs UTEP: 14.5
Total Yards (L5) +32.7% more
Oregon State: 432.4 vs UTEP: 291.0
Turnovers (L5) +51.4% more
UTEP: 1.7 vs Oregon State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.3% more
UTEP: 126.3 vs Oregon State: 99.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 30.8 33
UTEP Score 20.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 22.5 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 126.3 / 99.3 92.0 / 150.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 291.0 / 432.4 222.0 / 451.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -493 / +357 → -440 / +340 ↑
99%TICKETS1%
100%MONEY0%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -11.5 / +11.5 → -11.5 / +11.5
70%TICKETS30%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55 → 56.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 19.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UTEP
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 19.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
UTEP
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.8
UTEP
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
ORST
UTEP
ORST
ML
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
ATS
0% 0-6
60% 3-2
0% 0-6
50% 3-3
TTL
83% 5-1
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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