Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ Arkansas TLSA @ ARK

TULSA

TULSATLSA

3-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Max Tulen
KEY GAME

Max Tulen

#29 | Punter
@
Gavin Rush
KEY GAME

Gavin Rush

#37 | Punter
Player
Max Tulen None-None
Gavin Rush None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
11%
📊
ARKANSAS
89%
▲ Edge: +16.50% (ARK)
TULSA 31% Book Odds: +220
ARKANSAS 73% Book Odds: -270
Book Implied: 31.20% / 73%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 51%
Under 50.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.5
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 points (Arkansas)
TulsaTLSA (+7) 0 ArkansasARK (-7)
Arkansas Razorbacks (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

5.4%

Arkansas Cover

94.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARK -22.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

TLSA By 1-6 points

3.1%

TLSA By 7-13 points

1.4%

ARK By 1-6 points

6.9%

ARK By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
14.5
TULSA
Book Implied: 21.80
37
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
23
TULSA
Book Implied: 21.80
28
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -22.5
A
Sim Tulsa (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
D
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 TLSA @ ARK 6 - 34
Oct 20, 2018 TLSA @ ARK 0 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
Arkansas: 1.4 vs Tulsa: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Arkansas: 0.4 vs Tulsa: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.2% more
Tulsa: 229.4 vs Arkansas: 84.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
Tulsa: 407.6 vs Arkansas: 340.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 14.5 6
ARK Score 37.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 20.5 24.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 84.4 / 229.4 132.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 340.6 / 407.6 441.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285 → +220 / -270 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +7 / -7 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARK
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARK
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.7
ARK
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TLSA
ARK
TLSA
ML
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
TTL
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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