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HOUSTON CHRISTIAN

HOU CHRISTIANHCU

2-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

2-2  |  Home

63
Key Game
Julian Maceri
KEY GAME

Julian Maceri

#35 | Punter
@
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
Player
Julian Maceri None-None
Ian Ratliff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOU CHRISTIAN
5%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
95%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (HCU)
HOU CHRISTIAN 2% Book Odds: +5000
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
60.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 60.5 42%
Under 60.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+30.5
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
+38.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston Christian)
Hou ChristianHCU (+38.5) 0 North TexasUNT (-38.5)
Houston Christian Huskies (+38.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hou Christian Cover

98.5%

North Texas Cover

1.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HCU +30.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HCU)

HCU By 1-6 points

0.9%

HCU By 7-13 points

0.3%

UNT By 1-6 points

2.7%

UNT By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 11
43.5
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 49.50
Simulated Score
12
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Implied: 11
46
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 49.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim North Texas Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hou Christian (+38.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +30.5
A
Sim Hou Christian (+38.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +34.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.5
C
Sim u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 HCU @ UNT 14 - 63
Sep 5, 2020 HCU @ UNT 31 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +127.2% more
North Texas: 505.4 vs Houston Christian: 222.4
First Downs (L5) +100.6% more
North Texas: 26.8 vs Houston Christian: 13.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +66.4% more
North Texas: 161.6 vs Houston Christian: 97.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
North Texas: 0.5 vs Houston Christian: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HCU Score 13.0 14
UNT Score 43.5 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.8 / 13.4 33.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 161.6 / 97.1 248.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 505.4 / 222.4 648.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → +5000 / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +39.5 / -39.5 → +38.5 / -38.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 60.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HCU
--
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HCU
--
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HCU
--
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
HCU
UNT
HCU
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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