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TROY

TROYTROY

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

1-3  |  Home

21
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
52%
📊
UTAH STATE
48%
▲ Edge: +7% (TROY)
TROY 45% Book Odds: +124
UTAH STATE 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 56%
Under 47.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TROY
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Troy)
TroyTROY (+3) 0 Utah StateUSU (-3)
Troy Trojans (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

51.1%

Utah State Cover

48.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TROY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

TROY By 1-6 points

16.6%

TROY By 7-13 points

15.7%

USU By 1-6 points

16.3%

USU By 7-13 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
TROY
Book Implied: 22.20
24.8
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
17
TROY
Book Implied: 22.20
34
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Troy Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Utah State Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Troy (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
C
Sim Utah State (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 TROY @ USU 10 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Troy: 126.2 vs Utah State: 104.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Troy: 331.9 vs Utah State: 291.5
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Troy: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +72.5% more
Utah State: 1.9 vs Troy: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 25.2 10
USU Score 24.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 17.5 19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 104.9 / 126.2 171.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 291.5 / 331.9 413.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +124 / -148 ↑
26%TICKETS74%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 47.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
USU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
USU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
USU
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
TROY
USU
TROY
ML
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
83% 5-1
60% 3-2
TTL
17% 1-5
40% 2-3
17% 1-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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