Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Washington St ARIZ @ WSU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

3-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
@
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Chase Ridley None-None
Jack Stevens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
65%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
35%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (WSU)
ARIZONA 82% Book Odds: -464
WASHINGTON ST 22% Book Odds: +365
Book Implied: 82.30% / 21.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 48.5 44%
Under 48.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.5
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington State)
ArizonaARIZ (-10.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+10.5)
Washington State Cougars (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

32.1%

Washington St Cover

67.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU +6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

16.6%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.1%

WSU By 1-6 points

13.2%

WSU By 7-13 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
26
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 29.50
19.5
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19
Simulated Score
25
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 29.50
23
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 19
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Arizona Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.5
B
Sim Washington St (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.5
C
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ARIZ @ WSU 34 - 24
Oct 14, 2023 ARIZ @ WSU 44 - 6
Nov 19, 2022 WSU @ ARIZ 31 - 20
Nov 19, 2021 ARIZ @ WSU 18 - 44
Nov 17, 2018 ARIZ @ WSU 28 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Washington State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.0% more
Arizona: 416.6 vs Washington State: 370.8
First Downs (L5) +9.1% more
Arizona: 22.5 vs Washington State: 20.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +59.1% more
Washington State: 197.9 vs Arizona: 124.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 26.0 34
WSU Score 19.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 22.5 23.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 197.9 / 124.4 94.0 / 150.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 370.8 / 416.6 335.0 / 447.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -575 / +425 → -464 / +365 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13.5 / +13.5 → -10.5 / +10.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +2.8
WSU
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +2.8
WSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
WSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
ARIZ
WSU
ARIZ
ML
57% 4-3
100% 6-0
100% 7-0
67% 4-2
ATS
57% 4-3
67% 4-2
71% 5-2
50% 3-3
TTL
29% 2-5
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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