Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mercyhurst @ Western KY MERC @ WKU

MERCYHURST

MERCYHURSTMERC

1-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

1-3  |  Home

52
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Neill

#91 | Punter
@
Sincere Baines
KEY GAME

Sincere Baines

#23 | Running Back
Player
Thomas O'Neill None-None
Sincere Baines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERCYHURST
23%
📊
WESTERN KY
77%
MERCYHURST --
WESTERN KY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 58.5 48%
Under 58.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.5
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
+39.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Mercyhurst)
MercyhurstMERC (+39.5) 0 Western KYWKU (-39.5)
Mercyhurst Lakers (+39.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mercyhurst Cover

81.4%

Western KY Cover

18.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MERC +12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

MERC By 1-6 points

8.9%

MERC By 7-13 points

5.6%

WKU By 1-6 points

13.8%

WKU By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
MERCYHURST
Book Implied: 9.50
35
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 49
Simulated Score
14
MERCYHURST
Book Implied: 9.50
41
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 49
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Western KY Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mercyhurst (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +12.5
A
Sim Mercyhurst (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +27.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.5
D
Sim u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MERC @ WKU 7 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +119.2% more
Western Kentucky: 115.4 vs Mercyhurst: 52.7
Total Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Western Kentucky: 281.4 vs Mercyhurst: 209.7
First Downs (L5) +29.4% more
Western Kentucky: 16.4 vs Mercyhurst: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +35.1% more
Mercyhurst: 3.3 vs Western Kentucky: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 22.5 7
WKU Score 35.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 12.7 24.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 115.4 / 52.7 183.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 281.4 / 209.7 596.0 / 264.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 3.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3500 / -20000 → -- / --
10%TICKETS90%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +39.5 / -39.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 58.5
44%TICKETS56%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
--
WKU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
--
WKU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
--
WKU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
MERC
WKU
MERC
ML
71% 5-2
100% 1-0
57% 4-3
100% 3-0
ATS
43% 3-4
0% 0-1
29% 2-5
33% 1-2
TTL
57% 4-3
0% 0-1
57% 4-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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