Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ Arkansas St KENN @ ARST

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

2-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
@
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
Player
Matt McKenzie None-None
Reed Linder None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
69%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
31%
▲ Edge: +35.50% (KENN)
KENNESAW ST 34% Book Odds: +195
ARKANSAS ST 70% Book Odds: -238
Book Implied: 33.90% / 70.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 53.5 61%
Under 53.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
+6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.1 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (+6.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (-6.5)
Kennesaw State Owls (+6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

73.0%

Arkansas St Cover

27.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENN -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

15.9%

KENN By 7-13 points

19.6%

ARST By 1-6 points

11.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
33.8
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
25.2
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
28
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
30
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas St Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kennesaw St (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.6
A
Sim Kennesaw St (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Sim o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 KENN @ ARST 14 - 17
Sep 20, 2025 ARST @ KENN 21 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.9% more
Kennesaw State: 20.7 vs Arkansas State: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 33.8 14
ARST Score 25.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 20.7 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 145.6 / 139.1 119.0 / 197.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 355.2 / 365.4 363.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +195 / -238 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +1.0
ARST Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +1.0
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -7.7
ARST
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
KENN
ARST
KENN
ML
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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