Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Incarnate Word @ Texas St UIW @ TXST

INCARNATE WORD

INCARNATE WORDUIW

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

2-2  |  Home

63
Key Game
Efren Jasso
KEY GAME

Efren Jasso

#48 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
Player
Efren Jasso None-None
Tom Flintoff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INCARNATE WORD
12%
📊
TEXAS ST
88%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (UIW)
INCARNATE WORD 7% Book Odds: +1400
TEXAS ST 97% Book Odds: -3200
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
66.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 66.5 38%
Under 66.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+20.4
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
+30.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Incarnate Word)
Incarnate WordUIW (+30.5) 0 Texas StTXST (-30.5)
Incarnate Word Cardinals (+30.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Incarnate Word Cover

92.7%

Texas St Cover

7.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UIW +20.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)

UIW By 1-6 points

4.0%

UIW By 7-13 points

2.0%

TXST By 1-6 points

8.3%

TXST By 7-13 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
INCARNATE WORD
Book Implied: 18
40.2
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 48.50
Simulated Score
27
INCARNATE WORD
Book Implied: 18
33
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 48.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas St Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas St Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Incarnate Word (+30.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.4
A
Sim Incarnate Word (+30.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
B
Sim u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UIW @ TXST 10 - 63
Sep 18, 2021 UIW @ TXST 42 - 34
Oct 1, 2016 UIW @ TXST 17 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +230.3% more
Texas State: 265.0 vs Incarnate Word: 80.2
Total Yards (L5) +29.8% more
Texas State: 498.2 vs Incarnate Word: 383.8
First Downs (L5) +22.1% more
Texas State: 25.6 vs Incarnate Word: 21.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Texas State: 0.6 vs Incarnate Word: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIW Score 19.8 10
TXST Score 40.2 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.6 / 21.0 25.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 265.0 / 80.2 338.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.71 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 498.2 / 383.8 658.0 / 358.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +1400 / -3200 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +30.5 / -30.5
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 65.5 → 66.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
--
TXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
--
TXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
--
TXST
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
UIW
TXST
UIW
ML
67% 4-2
100% 1-0
67% 4-2
100% 1-0
ATS
17% 1-5
0% 0-1
33% 2-4
0% 0-1
TTL
33% 2-4
0% 0-1
50% 3-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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