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NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

NC CENTRALNCCU

2-3  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 4:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

2-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jake Marcantel

#40 | Long Snapper
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Jake Marcantel None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC CENTRAL
7%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
93%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (NCCU)
NC CENTRAL 6% Book Odds: +1700
EAST CAROLINA 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 58.5 53%
Under 58.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.6
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (North Carolina Central)
NC CentralNCCU (+37.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (-37.5)
North Carolina Central Eagles (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC Central Cover

97.6%

East Carolina Cover

2.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCCU +27.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

NCCU By 1-6 points

1.5%

NCCU By 7-13 points

0.6%

ECU By 1-6 points

3.9%

ECU By 7-13 points

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Implied: 10.50
43.8
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 48
Simulated Score
13
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Implied: 10.50
35
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 48
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim East Carolina Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC Central (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +27.6
A
Sim NC Central (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +22.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
D
Sim u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 NCCU @ ECU 9 - 42
Aug 30, 2014 NCCU @ ECU 7 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +59.1% more
East Carolina: 325.9 vs North Carolina Central: 204.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.5% more
East Carolina: 147.3 vs North Carolina Central: 99.2
First Downs (L5) +36.6% more
East Carolina: 17.1 vs North Carolina Central: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +37.3% more
North Carolina Central: 2.1 vs East Carolina: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 16.2 9
ECU Score 43.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 12.5 17.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 147.3 / 99.2 148.0 / 35.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.2 0.58 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 325.9 / 204.8 489.0 / 208.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3500 / -20000 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 58.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
--
ECU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU
--
ECU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
--
ECU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
NCCU
ECU
NCCU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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