Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Gardner-Webb @ Marshall GWEB @ MRSH

GARDNER-WEBB

GARDNER-WEBBGWEB

1-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

3-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
Andrew Bontekoe
KEY GAME

Andrew Bontekoe

#45 | Place kicker
@
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
Player
Andrew Bontekoe None-None
Cooper Heimbach None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GARDNER-WEBB
7%
📊
MARSHALL
93%
GARDNER-WEBB 8% Book Odds: +1100
MARSHALL 95% Book Odds: -2083
Book Implied: 8.30% / 95.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 56.5 55%
Under 56.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
-24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Marshall)
Gardner-WebbGWEB (+24.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (-24.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd (-24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gardner-Webb Cover

2.3%

Marshall Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

GWEB By 1-6 points

1.4%

GWEB By 7-13 points

0.5%

MRSH By 1-6 points

3.8%

MRSH By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15.2
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Implied: 16
43.2
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 40.50
Simulated Score
22
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Implied: 16
32
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 40.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Marshall Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim Marshall Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marshall (-24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Gardner-Webb (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 GWEB @ MRSH 35 - 36
Oct 1, 2022 GWEB @ MRSH 7 - 28
Sep 7, 2013 GWEB @ MRSH 0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Marshall: 174.3 vs Gardner-Webb: 122.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Marshall: 0.4 vs Gardner-Webb: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.4% more
Marshall: 20.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 19.0
Turnovers (L5) +43.9% more
Gardner-Webb: 2.3 vs Marshall: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score 15.2 35
MRSH Score 43.2 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 19.0 27.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 174.3 / 122.7 156.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 370.0 / 344.7 569.0 / 458.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1200 / -2381 → +1100 / -2083 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +24.5 / -24.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 56.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GWEB
--
MRSH Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -12.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GWEB
--
MRSH Advantage
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -12.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GWEB
--
MRSH
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
GWEB
MRSH
GWEB
ML
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
83% 5-1
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 2-4
33% 1-2
17% 1-5
67% 2-1
TTL
50% 3-3
67% 2-1
50% 3-3
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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