Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Robert Morris @ Buffalo RMU @ BUFF

ROBERT MORRIS

ROBERT MORRISRMU

2-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Broadview Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

2-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Bryson Costa
KEY GAME

Bryson Costa

#33 | Place kicker
@
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
Player
Bryson Costa None-None
Oliver Hautanen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ROBERT MORRIS
6%
📊
BUFFALO
94%
ROBERT MORRIS 7% Book Odds: +1400
BUFFALO 97% Book Odds: -3226
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 69%
Under 46.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Robert MorrisRMU (+27.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (-27.5)
Buffalo Bulls (-27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Robert Morris Cover

2.1%

Buffalo Cover

97.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -28.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

RMU By 1-6 points

1.3%

RMU By 7-13 points

0.5%

BUFF By 1-6 points

3.5%

BUFF By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Implied: 9.50
41.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
11
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Implied: 9.50
37
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Buffalo Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buffalo (-27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.5
D
Sim Robert Morris (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: +26.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.5
A
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 RMU @ BUFF 28 - 31
Aug 29, 2019 RMU @ BUFF 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +73.8% more
Buffalo: 103.2 vs Robert Morris: 59.4
Total Yards (L5) +43.9% more
Buffalo: 284.3 vs Robert Morris: 197.6
First Downs (L5) +42.2% more
Buffalo: 15.5 vs Robert Morris: 10.9
Turnovers (L5) +27.1% more
Buffalo: 2.2 vs Robert Morris: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RMU Score 13.0 28
BUFF Score 41.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 10.9 27.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 103.2 / 59.4 302.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 284.3 / 197.6 442.0 / 316.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +1400 / -3226 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46.5 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RMU
--
BUFF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RMU
--
BUFF Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RMU
--
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
RMU
BUFF
RMU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Delaware Opens CUSA Play Without Starting QB Nick Minicucci Agai…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago
Bills Coach Joe Brady Pushes for Increased Role for Ray Davis Am…
si 1 week, 1 day ago
Patriots Host Tryouts for Two Edge Rushers Ahead of Bills Showdo…
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago
Penn State's Koby Howard Sidelined for Extended Period, Testing …
cbssports 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Colorado Buffaloes Tumble 20 Spots in ESPN FPI After Northwester…
yahoo 2 weeks, 2 days ago