Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ New Mexico St UNM @ NMSU

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

3-1  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

1-3  |  Home

18
Key Game
Charles Steinkamp
KEY GAME

Charles Steinkamp

#35 | Punter
@
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
Player
Charles Steinkamp None-None
Brody Richter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
73%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
27%
▲ Edge: +5.20% (NMSU)
NEW MEXICO 82% Book Odds: -468
NEW MEXICO ST 21% Book Odds: +368
Book Implied: 82.40% / 21.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 48.0 54%
Under 48.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
New MexicoUNM (-10.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+10.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+10.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

22.7%

New Mexico St Cover

77.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NMSU +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

UNM By 1-6 points

15.0%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.7%

NMSU By 1-6 points

10.4%

NMSU By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
30
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 29.20
19.5
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 18.80
Simulated Score
25
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 29.20
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 18.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim New Mexico St Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.5
D
Sim New Mexico St (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.5
D
Sim o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 UNM @ NMSU 42 - 18
Sep 27, 2025 NMSU @ UNM 20 - 38
Sep 28, 2024 UNM @ NMSU 50 - 40
Sep 16, 2023 NMSU @ UNM 27 - 17
Oct 15, 2022 UNM @ NMSU 9 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.6% more
New Mexico: 161.1 vs New Mexico State: 137.6
Turnovers (L5) +172.0% more
New Mexico State: 2.1 vs New Mexico: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +34.2% more
New Mexico State: 410.2 vs New Mexico: 305.6
First Downs (L5) +23.3% more
New Mexico State: 22.6 vs New Mexico: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 30.0 42
NMSU Score 19.5 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 18.4 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 137.6 / 161.1 137.0 / 253.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 410.2 / 305.6 400.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -549 / +410 → -468 / +368 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -12.5 / +12.5 → -10.5 / +10.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
UNM
NMSU
UNM
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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