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WILLIAM & MARY

WILLIAM & MARYW&M

2-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

4-0  |  Home

62
Key Game
Carter Boyd
KEY GAME

Carter Boyd

#94 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Gavin Strange

#25 | Place kicker
Player
Carter Boyd None-None
Gavin Strange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WILLIAM & MARY
3%
📊
DUKE
97%
WILLIAM & MARY --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 61.5 34%
Under 61.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+36.4
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
+43.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (William & Mary)
William & MaryW&M (+43.5) 0 DukeDUKE (-43.5)
William & Mary Tribe (+43.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

William & Mary Cover

99.5%

Duke Cover

0.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around W&M +36.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)

W&M By 1-6 points

0.3%

W&M By 7-13 points

0.1%

DUKE By 1-6 points

1.1%

DUKE By 7-13 points

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
8.8
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Implied: 9
45.2
DUKE
Book Implied: 52.50
Simulated Score
17
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Implied: 9
31
DUKE
Book Implied: 52.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Duke Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI William & Mary (+43.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +36.4
A
Sim William & Mary (+43.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 W&M @ DUKE 7 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.1% more
Duke: 206.9 vs William & Mary: 121.6
First Downs (L5) +51.2% more
Duke: 20.6 vs William & Mary: 13.6
Total Yards (L5) +38.9% more
Duke: 403.3 vs William & Mary: 290.4
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Duke: 0.7 vs William & Mary: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
W&M Score 8.8 7
DUKE Score 45.2 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 13.6 28.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 206.9 / 121.6 286.0 / 17.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 403.3 / 290.4 638.0 / 170.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +43.5 / -43.5 → +43.5 / -43.5
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 61.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
--
DUKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +7.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
--
DUKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +7.4
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
--
DUKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
W&M
DUKE
W&M
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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