Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Wyoming HAW @ WYO

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Gehrig Heil None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
66%
📊
WYOMING
34%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (HAW)
HAWAI'I 56% Book Odds: -125
WYOMING 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 55.60% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 (Over)
Over 43.5 62%
Under 43.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Hawai'i)
Hawai'iHAW (-2.5) 0 WyomingWYO (+2.5)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

69.1%

Wyoming Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HAW -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

HAW By 1-6 points

16.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.3%

WYO By 1-6 points

12.9%

WYO By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 23
20.8
WYOMING
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
24
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 23
27
WYOMING
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Wyoming Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Wyoming (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.6
B
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 HAW @ WYO 10 - 27
Nov 29, 2025 WYO @ HAW 7 - 27
Nov 18, 2023 HAW @ WYO 9 - 42
Oct 29, 2022 WYO @ HAW 27 - 20
Nov 27, 2021 HAW @ WYO 38 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
Hawai'i: 378.0 vs Wyoming: 297.4
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Hawai'i: 20.0 vs Wyoming: 16.2
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Hawai'i: 0.5 vs Wyoming: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +117.0% more
Wyoming: 2.0 vs Hawai'i: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 27.8 10
WYO Score 20.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 20.0 23.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 136.8 / 94.6 183.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 297.4 / 378.0 387.0 / 328.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -161 / +136 → -125 / +105 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45 → 43.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
WYO Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
WYO
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.0
WYO
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
HAW
WYO
HAW
ML
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
ATS
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
TTL
0% 0-6
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
17% 1-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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