Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lindenwood @ E Michigan LIN @ EMU

LINDENWOOD

LINDENWOODLIN

1-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 1:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

2-3  |  Home

29
Key Game
Will Graham
KEY GAME

Will Graham

#37 | Place kicker
@
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
Player
Will Graham None-None
Daniel Hull None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LINDENWOOD
10%
📊
E MICHIGAN
90%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (LIN)
LINDENWOOD 8% Book Odds: +1200
E MICHIGAN 96% Book Odds: -2381
Book Implied: 7.70% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 53.5 53%
Under 53.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+23.5
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
+24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Lindenwood)
LindenwoodLIN (+24.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (-24.5)
Lindenwood Lions (+24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lindenwood Cover

95.3%

E Michigan Cover

4.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LIN +23.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)

LIN By 1-6 points

2.7%

LIN By 7-13 points

1.2%

EMU By 1-6 points

6.2%

EMU By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
LINDENWOOD
Book Implied: 14.50
39
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 39
Simulated Score
12
LINDENWOOD
Book Implied: 14.50
39
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 39
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI E Michigan Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim E Michigan Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lindenwood (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +23.5
D
Sim E Michigan (-24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
D
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 LIN @ EMU 3 - 29
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +43.2% more
Eastern Michigan: 16.0 vs Lindenwood: 11.2
Total Yards (L5) +41.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 281.4 vs Lindenwood: 198.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 100.6 vs Lindenwood: 74.5
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 2.1 vs Lindenwood: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 15.5 3
EMU Score 39.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 11.2 25.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 100.6 / 74.5 139.0 / 136.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.57 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 281.4 / 198.6 396.0 / 191.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +1200 / -2381 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +25.5 / -25.5 → +24.5 / -24.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 53.5 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
--
EMU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
--
EMU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
--
EMU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
LIN
EMU
LIN
ML
57% 4-3
100% 3-0
43% 3-4
100% 3-0
ATS
57% 4-3
33% 1-2
43% 3-4
67% 2-1
TTL
71% 5-2
33% 1-2
57% 4-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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