Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Kentucky USA @ UK

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

2-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:45 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

3-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Thomas O'Hara
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Hara

#48 | Punter
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Thomas O'Hara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
8%
📊
KENTUCKY
92%
SOUTH ALABAMA 10% Book Odds: +900
KENTUCKY 94% Book Odds: -1587
Book Implied: 10% / 94.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 54.5 66%
Under 54.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
-21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kentucky)
South AlabamaUSA (+21) 0 KentuckyUK (-21)
Kentucky Wildcats (-21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

3.2%

Kentucky Cover

96.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

USA By 1-6 points

1.9%

USA By 7-13 points

0.8%

UK By 1-6 points

4.8%

UK By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 16.80
43.2
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 37.80
Simulated Score
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 16.80
26
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 37.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kentucky Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim South Alabama Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kentucky (-21) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
B
Sim South Alabama (+21) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.4
A
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 USA @ UK 21 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +109.0% more
Kentucky: 1.3 vs South Alabama: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.0% more
South Alabama: 227.4 vs Kentucky: 125.1
First Downs (L5) +23.1% more
South Alabama: 23.2 vs Kentucky: 17.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
South Alabama: 0.5 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 17.2 21
UK Score 43.2 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 23.2 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 125.1 / 227.4 390.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 344.0 / 432.2 567.0 / 354.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.2 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +950 / -1639 → +900 / -1587
1%TICKETS99%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +21 / -21 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 54.5 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
UK Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
UK Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +19.5
UK
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +10.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
USA
UK
USA
ML
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
ATS
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
83% 5-1
TTL
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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