Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Tennessee TEX @ TENN

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

4-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

3-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Mac Chiumento None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
52%
📊
TENNESSEE
48%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (TENN)
TEXAS 67% Book Odds: -205
TENNESSEE 37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 67.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 54.5 55%
Under 54.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Tennessee)
TexasTEX (-5.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+5.5)
Tennessee Volunteers (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

47.2%

Tennessee Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TEX By 1-6 points

16.7%

TEX By 7-13 points

16.1%

TENN By 1-6 points

16.1%

TENN By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 30
28.2
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
25
TEXAS
Book Implied: 30
32
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Tennessee Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim Tennessee (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.4
C
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 TEX @ TENN 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.4% more
Tennessee: 256.4 vs Texas: 169.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Tennessee: 478.3 vs Texas: 406.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Tennessee: 0.9 vs Texas: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 29.2 20
TENN Score 28.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 24.4 22.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 256.4 / 169.3 70.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 478.3 / 406.2 221.0 / 262.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -270 / +220 → -205 / +170 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 54.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
TENN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
TEX
TENN
TEX
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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