Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Old Dominion JMU @ ODU

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

4-0  |  Road

46
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

1-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
52%
📊
OLD DOMINION
48%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (ODU)
JAMES MADISON 71% Book Odds: -245
OLD DOMINION 33% Book Odds: +200
Book Implied: 71% / 33.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 54%
Under 43.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Old Dominion)
James MadisonJMU (-7) 0 Old DominionODU (+7)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

47.2%

Old Dominion Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ODU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

JMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

JMU By 7-13 points

16.1%

ODU By 1-6 points

16.1%

ODU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 25.20
22
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 18.20
Simulated Score
24
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 25.20
33
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 18.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Old Dominion Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim Old Dominion (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 JMU @ ODU 46 - 20
Oct 18, 2025 ODU @ JMU 27 - 63
Nov 16, 2024 JMU @ ODU 35 - 32
Oct 28, 2023 ODU @ JMU 27 - 30
Nov 12, 2022 JMU @ ODU 37 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +25.8% more
James Madison: 452.8 vs Old Dominion: 335.8
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
James Madison: 21.4 vs Old Dominion: 16.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.4% more
James Madison: 218.7 vs Old Dominion: 196.0
Turnovers (L5) +119.0% more
Old Dominion: 2.0 vs James Madison: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 23.0 46
ODU Score 22.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 21.4 14.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 196.0 / 218.7 -14.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 335.8 / 452.8 247.0 / 405.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +145 → -245 / +200 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -7 / +7 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 43.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.8 ATS +/-: +13.8
ODU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 26.8 ATS +/-: +13.8
ODU
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +6.0
ODU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
JMU
ODU
JMU
ML
57% 4-3
83% 5-1
29% 2-5
50% 3-3
ATS
29% 2-5
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
50% 3-3
TTL
29% 2-5
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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