Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Sacramento St MASS @ SAC

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

4-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-4  |  Home

6
Key Game
Edward Phillipson
KEY GAME

Edward Phillipson

#43 | Punter
@
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
Player
Edward Phillipson None-None
Hamish Adams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
26%
📊
SACRAMENTO ST
74%
▲ Edge: +36.50% (SAC)
UMASS 67% Book Odds: -205
SACRAMENTO ST 37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 67.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 48.5 63%
Under 48.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Sacramento State)
UMassMASS (-5.5) 0 Sacramento StSAC (+5.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

22.7%

Sacramento St Cover

77.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MASS By 1-6 points

10.4%

MASS By 7-13 points

6.9%

SAC By 1-6 points

15.0%

SAC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 27
33
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 21.50
Simulated Score
17
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 27
32
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 21.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Sacramento St Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
A
Sim Sacramento St (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.5
B
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MASS @ SAC 35 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +135.0% more
Sacramento State: 2.2 vs Massachusetts: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +28.1% more
Sacramento State: 19.7 vs Massachusetts: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Sacramento State: 351.1 vs Massachusetts: 322.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Massachusetts: 154.9 vs Sacramento State: 124.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 22.5 35
SAC Score 33.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 15.4 23.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 124.7 / 154.9 102.0 / 232.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 351.1 / 322.7 323.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -227 / +187 → -205 / +170 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
77%TICKETS23%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: +6.5
SAC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: +6.5
SAC
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.2
SAC
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MASS
SAC
MASS
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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