Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Kent State BALL @ KENT

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
@
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
Player
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
Jake Stoeckel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
42%
📊
KENT STATE
58%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (KENT)
BALL STATE 47% Book Odds: +114
KENT STATE 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 71%
Under 50.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
KENT STATE
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kent State)
Ball StateBALL (+2.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (-2.5)
Kent State Golden Flashes (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

40.1%

Kent State Cover

59.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENT -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

BALL By 1-6 points

15.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

12.5%

KENT By 1-6 points

17.0%

KENT By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28.5
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 24
32
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
16
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 24
31
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kent State Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Kent State Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kent State (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim Kent State (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.5
A
Sim u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 BALL @ KENT 13 - 26
Nov 5, 2025 KENT @ BALL 13 - 17
Oct 12, 2024 BALL @ KENT 37 - 35
Nov 18, 2023 KENT @ BALL 3 - 34
Nov 1, 2022 BALL @ KENT 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +88.8% more
Kent State: 2.2 vs Ball State: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Kent State: 0.4 vs Ball State: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +23.6% more
Ball State: 17.2 vs Kent State: 13.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Ball State: 147.6 vs Kent State: 121.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 28.5 13
KENT Score 32.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.2 / 17.2 20.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 121.2 / 147.6 165.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.43 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 272.7 / 302.0 354.0 / 210.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +114 / -135 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -20.7 ATS +/-: -2.3
KENT Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -20.7 ATS +/-: -2.3
KENT
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +4.7
KENT
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
BALL
KENT
BALL
ML
100% 6-0
100% 6-0
100% 6-0
100% 6-0
ATS
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
TTL
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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