UNLV
UNLVUNLV
2-2 | Road
38
AKRON
AKRONAKR
1-3 | Home
10
Key Game
KEY GAME
Matt Choules
#26 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Joseph Castle
#95 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Matt Choules | None-None |
| Joseph Castle | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
75%
AKRON
25%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (AKR)
UNLV
85%
Book Odds: -549
AKRON
20%
Book Odds: +410
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 52.5
36%
Under 52.5
64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
AKRON
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Akron)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AKR +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)
UNLV By 1-6 points
14.2%
UNLV By 7-13 points
19.5%
AKR By 1-6 points
9.3%
AKR By 7-13 points
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
29.5
UNLV
Book Implied: 33
Akron
17.5
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
UNLV
28
UNLV
Book Implied: 33
Akron
29
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
UNLV
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Akron
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Akron (+13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim
Akron (+13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u52.5
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim
o52.5
Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 26, 2026
UNLV @ AKR
38 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+17.9% more
UNLV: 162.1
vs
Akron: 133.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.9% more
UNLV: 2.0
vs
Akron: 1.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+10.0% more
UNLV: 0.4
vs
Akron: 0.3
First Downs (L5)
+8.0% more
Akron: 21.5
vs
UNLV: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
29.5
38
AKR Score
17.5
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.5 / 19.9
19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
133.0 / 162.1
107.0 / 203.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.38 / 0.46
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
352.1 / 358.1
301.0 / 493.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 2.0
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -649 / +470
→
-549 / +410
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14
→
-13.5 / +13.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5
→
52.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
AKR
1-8-0
(11.1%)
Margin: -13.1
ATS +/-: -5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
Advantage
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
AKR
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: -13.1
ATS +/-: -5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -4.6
AKR
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
UNLV
AKR
UNLV
ML
89%
8-1
50%
4-4
67%
6-3
62%
5-3
ATS
67%
6-3
25%
2-6
44%
4-5
75%
6-2
TTL
88%
7-1-1
50%
4-4
62%
5-3-1
38%
3-5
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