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NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 2:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

3-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Samer Layous None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
46%
📊
GEORGIA ST
54%
▲ Edge: +19.30% (NIU)
N ILLINOIS 27% Book Odds: +275
GEORGIA ST 78% Book Odds: -345
Book Implied: 26.70% / 77.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 55%
Under 56.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Northern Illinois)
N IllinoisNIU (+8.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (-8.5)
Northern Illinois Huskies (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

54.0%

Georgia St Cover

46.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

NIU By 1-6 points

16.0%

NIU By 7-13 points

14.3%

GAST By 1-6 points

16.8%

GAST By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
28.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 24
30.2
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 24
36
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia St Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Georgia St Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.4
A
Sim Georgia St (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 NIU @ GAST 14 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +94.0% more
Georgia State: 1.9 vs Northern Illinois: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.2% more
Georgia State: 202.7 vs Northern Illinois: 124.2
Total Yards (L5) +60.0% more
Georgia State: 468.0 vs Northern Illinois: 292.5
First Downs (L5) +36.3% more
Georgia State: 23.6 vs Northern Illinois: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 28.8 14
GAST Score 30.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 17.3 17.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 202.7 / 124.2 144.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 468.0 / 292.5 342.0 / 432.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +300 / -380 → +275 / -345 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +8.5 / -8.5
45%TICKETS55%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.2 ATS +/-: -5.3
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -22.2 ATS +/-: -5.3
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
NIU
GAST
NIU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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