Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ Nevada AFA @ NEV

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

2-1  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-3  |  Home

33
Key Game
Will Duncan
KEY GAME

Will Duncan

#94 | Punter
@
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
Player
Will Duncan None-None
Ewan Baulch None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
46%
📊
NEVADA
54%
▲ Edge: +19.80% (NEV)
AIR FORCE 70% Book Odds: -230
NEVADA 35% Book Odds: +190
Book Implied: 69.70% / 34.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 50.5 63%
Under 50.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Nevada)
Air ForceAFA (-5.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+5.5)
Nevada Wolf Pack (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

44.3%

Nevada Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEV -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

AFA By 1-6 points

15.7%

AFA By 7-13 points

13.8%

NEV By 1-6 points

16.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 28
29.2
NEVADA
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
28
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 28
25
NEVADA
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nevada Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Air Force Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nevada (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim Nevada (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
B
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 AFA @ NEV 36 - 33
Nov 23, 2024 AFA @ NEV 22 - 19
Sep 23, 2022 NEV @ AFA 20 - 48
Nov 19, 2021 AFA @ NEV 41 - 39
Sep 29, 2018 NEV @ AFA 28 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +189.0% more
Nevada: 2.6 vs Air Force: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Air Force: 276.3 vs Nevada: 166.5
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
Air Force: 22.3 vs Nevada: 18.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 27.2 36
NEV Score 29.2 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 22.3 20.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 166.5 / 276.3 187.0 / 363.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 329.9 / 380.2 411.0 / 455.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -204 / +169 → -230 / +190 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 50.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
NEV
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
NEV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.5
NEV
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
AFA
NEV
AFA
ML
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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