Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Tulane USM @ TULN

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Cam'ron Hoyte

#99 | Defensive Lineman
@
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
Player
Cam'ron Hoyte None-None
William Hudlow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
27%
📊
TULANE
73%
▲ Edge: +14.10% (USM)
SOUTHERN MISS 13% Book Odds: +675
TULANE 91% Book Odds: -1050
Book Implied: 12.90% / 91.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 34%
Under 52.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.6
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (+17.5) 0 TulaneTULN (-17.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

77.6%

Tulane Cover

22.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM +10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

10.3%

USM By 7-13 points

6.8%

TULN By 1-6 points

14.9%

TULN By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 17.50
27.8
TULANE
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
30
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 17.50
28
TULANE
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tulane Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Southern Miss Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Southern Miss (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.6
A
Sim Southern Miss (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 USM @ TULN 21 - 24
Sep 16, 2023 TULN @ USM 21 - 3
Sep 24, 2022 USM @ TULN 27 - 24
Sep 26, 2020 TULN @ USM 66 - 24
Jan 4, 2020 USM @ TULN 13 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.1% more
Southern Miss: 1.6 vs Tulane: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
Southern Miss: 20.7 vs Tulane: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Southern Miss: 377.5 vs Tulane: 340.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 17.2 21
TULN Score 27.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 20.7 20.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 131.5 / 125.4 281.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 340.2 / 377.5 445.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +750 / -1205 → +675 / -1050 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5 → +17.5 / -17.5
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
TULN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
TULN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
TULN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
USM
TULN
USM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USMNT's Youth Impress, Manchester City's Guilty Verdict, and Ire…
yahoo 2 weeks, 3 days ago
Daniels and Kromah Propel Florida State to 34-7 Victory Over Cen…
ctinsider 2 weeks, 5 days ago
Tulane's Clash with Southern Miss: A Defining Moment for Coach W…
yahoo 3 weeks, 2 days ago
Kansas State Hosts Tulane in Final Nonconference Tune-Up
si 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Alabama's Defensive Blueprint: Shut Down Florida State's Ground …
tuscaloosanews 1 month ago