Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Miami OH CONN @ M-OH

UCONN

UCONNCONN

2-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Tommy Warner

#49 | Punter
@
OJ Alexander
KEY GAME

OJ Alexander

#99 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tommy Warner None-None
OJ Alexander None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
68%
📊
MIAMI OH
32%
▲ Edge: +21.10% (CONN)
UCONN 47% Book Odds: +114
MIAMI OH 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 59%
Under 52.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
UCONN
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (+2.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (-2.5)
UConn Huskies (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

71.6%

Miami OH Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

16.1%

CONN By 7-13 points

19.5%

M-OH By 1-6 points

12.2%

M-OH By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32.2
UCONN
Book Implied: 25
24.2
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
35
UCONN
Book Implied: 25
26
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UConn Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim UConn Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UConn (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Sim UConn (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.4
B
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 CONN @ M-OH 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.6% more
UConn: 179.0 vs Miami (OH): 113.5
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
UConn: 414.0 vs Miami (OH): 362.4
First Downs (L5) +9.0% more
UConn: 21.1 vs Miami (OH): 19.2
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Miami (OH): 1.2 vs UConn: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 32.2 21
M-OH Score 24.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 21.1 20.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 113.5 / 179.0 89.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 362.4 / 414.0 414.0 / 377.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180 → +114 / -135 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 52.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
M-OH
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
CONN
M-OH
CONN
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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